Ronald F. Kilmartin
Consulting Engineer Tel 925 934 0378
415 Turrin Drive Fax 925 945 7187
Pleasant Hill, CA 94523 email@example.com
April 3, 2011
Governor Jerry Brown
Dear Governor Brown:
Before you sign SB X1 2 (Simitian), I would like to be sure that you are aware of the current science regarding CO2 and global warming theory.
It has been found that this theory is not supported by historical data. It is a false hypothesis.
This is shown by the attached graph of annual mean global temperature and mean CO2 concentration for the period February 1996 through February 2011. It can be readily appreciated that there is no relation, since temperature is topping and trending downward over this period, while CO2 concentration is trending upward for the entire period. An even more sharp divergence occurred from 1940 to 1980 when temperature was trending down while CO2 was trending up (when some sources were indeed predicting an ice age). Global mean temperature moves slowly up and down with a major influence from aperiodic solar activity, indirectly conveyed through diversion of galactic cosmic rays by solar winds.
Thus the attempt to control global warming through crunching down on CO2 production is doomed to fail. Global warming, and cooling, is a natural aperiodic phenomena which has been documented for paleo times with geologic records over millions of years and human records based on proxy data over the past 2000 years. The Medieval Warming was greater than the XX Century warmng, yet there was no Anthropogenic CO2.
The fundamental solar source of global temperature change is reflected in the movement of major oceanic currents, particularly the Pacific-Indian-Antarctic Oceanic masses, which have a combined area of about 2/3s of the planet.
A second graph attached is a time-series plot over the same period as the first chart, repeating the global temperature data (HadCRUT = Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature data, Univ. of East Anglia), together with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI index is related to Pacific Ocean temperatures and the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, movement of giant streams of ocean currents along the equator and in the Northwest and Southeast Pacific. The fundamental driver influencing these indexes is again solar. The concentric parallel tendency of these trends is obvious from the plots, confirming that the source of warming and cooling is natural.
There are similar results available linking periodic trends in various oceanic currents and indexes to aperiodic temperature and precipitation trends in nearby land masses.
Frankly, the various anti-CO2 laws are founded on sand that will blow away, and the whole anti-CO2 structure will eventually fall down – it is only a matter of time. It has been said that after political laws are created, the laws of economics take over. This happened the last time the legislature messed with energy economics. AB 32, S 375, and now SB X 1 2 promise havoc in the market place an order of magnitude greater than the previous debacle.
The real problem for California is that the threat of regulation under these bills is enough to make many businesses close their doors and move out, with the jobs, and with the tax revenue that the state needs to balance its budget. The SB X 1 2 bill will blow power costs through the roof. I can assure you that the green jobs expectation will come to nil. The gadgetry (wind mills and panels) have zero system reliability and a capital cost 10x or more conventional fossil power. They have a negative value in any electric power system. And the people will be required to pay for this boondoggle, the utilities will just pass it through.
We are short $26 billion in the 2011 state budget. What will the state be short when the impact of these bills is felt? Risk aversion will cause businesses to pack up and leave well in advance of CARB’s implementation plan. By the way, CARB’s director Mary Nichols has publicly stated that AB 32 will not affect global CO2 concentrations. How obvious can be the question then, why are we doing this?
Well you have my professional opinion. I have been engaged in large-scale water and power resources planning and hydrology for over 50 years. I have a keen sense of the operation, planning, and economics of hydro-thermal power systems, having participated and managed such investigations for long-term planning in Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nicaragua and Luzon. As for climatic trends, I authored the first paper in English dealing with hydroclimatology as a needed cross discipline, a paper motivated by the recognition that climate has a major influence on water resources and needed to be inducted into the engineering planning process, which was not being done at the time (1960-70s).
I have no financial oar in this matter, other than hoping that I do not live to see California become a failed state, with all the adverse consequences to the people including my kids and grandkids. It would be a failure in my ethical professional duty, and my duty as a citizen, to sit silent in the face of the oncoming economic tsunami of these three pieces of legislation (including others which chase the carbon bogey man).
Please consider this plea to hold up on SB X 1 2 and AB 32 / S 375.
Ron Kilmartin, P.E.
CA Civil 14411 Expires 3/31/2013
415 Turrin Drive
Pleasant Hill, CA 94523
Further discussion by this writer supporting the failed Proposition 23 can be found at https://ronkilmartin.wordpress.com.
Enclosed: Two charts (from the C3 website 3/30/2011).
By the way, here is an interesting quote:
“ Some of the hysteric and extreme claims about global warming are [snip] a symptom of pagan emptiness, of Western fear when confronted by the immense and basically uncontrollable forces of nature. Belief in a benign God who is master of the universe has a steadying psychological effect, although it is no guarantee of Utopia, no guarantee that the continuing climate and geographic changes will be benign. In the past pagans sacrificed animals and even humans in vain attempts to placate capricious and cruel gods. Today they demand a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions…” Cardinal George Pell, Archbishop of Sydney, Islam and Western Democracies, February, 2006.