AB 32 and Proposition 23 – the snowball analogy
By Ron Kilmartin
Consider the snowball analogy. Joe and Jane California are at the top of a steep mountain. They have two large snowballs before them, and on November 2nd they must decide which snowball to push. They can only push one down the mountain. Their decision will have state-wide, nation-wide, and global implications, and could either cost them dearly, or not,
One snowball is labeled Proposition 23. The other snowball is AB 32. The game is that Joe and Jane must decide whether or not to push the Proposition 23 snowball (i.e., to vote yes).
If they decide to push the Proposition 23 snowball, that will automatically melt the AB 32 snowball in place, and the Proposition 23 snowball will immediately go down the mountain.
On the other hand, if they decide not to push the Proposition 23 snowball, that will automatically send the AB 32 snowball down the mountain, and melt the Proposition 23 snowball in place.
The consequences in either case will be huge, not only for California but for the entire nation, and indeed, potentially the entire world. The reason for effects of this decision outside the state is that California has always been a place for innovation and advanced technology. Many other states and the federal government frequently follow California, from road-building and dam-building techniques and standards to micro-chips and computers. In legislatures across the land, it is frequently heard “They are doing this or that in California, so we should too”. Export of California technology and standards has most always been a good thing, as they are based on fact and science. AB 32 however is based on myth, the CO2 myth, and its import by other states will only lead to the further ruination of their own economies and further enhancement of the federal financial debacle..
If AB 32 regulations are imposed in California, it will turn the state’s economy upside down. I have written a separate essay “AB 32 – some myths and some truths” which can be read here. Therein I list eleven reasons to reject AB 32 by voting yes on Proposition 23.
The effects inside California of AB 32 implementation are beyond predictable because of the ultra-complexity of the California economy, and because AB 32 would be imposed not on a humming economy that might be able to absorb the shock of the AB 32 attack, but one that is already severely crippled from the debacles in the housing, irrigated agriculture, and financial sectors, with unemployment upwards of 30 percent in some areas.
The dislocations by AB 32 will be beyond belief. Depleting the carbon resource available to meet the needs of California energy systems (electric power and fuel for transportation) would be like pinching off the central nervous system in the human body. Every element of the body that depends on the nervous system suddenly has to make do partly or fully without it You do not need an MD to tell you that it would not work. By the same token, it does not require a rocket scientist to conclude that the California economy cannot work with a massive reduction in carbon dioxide production (i.e., electric power and transportation). However, it does take more brains than seem to be available in Sacramento.
Joe and Jane California will be socked with increased costs and taxes and fees for every expense in their daily lives, as everything basically depends on production of carbon dioxide, which the fleecers will price up as high as they can go. The gadget (wind and solar) fleecers will be sustained by the green-gadget subsidies and tax breaks, and the cap and trade fleecers will be sustained by higher electricity, gasoline and diesel costs. The political and bureaucratic fleecers in Sacramento will get their share of the fleecing by taxing the cap and traders. In this picture, Joe and Jane’s wealth are the target of all the fleecers. They will be required to transfer their wealth and wages to enrich the fleecers, down to the point where they may have little or nothing left. There is no doubt that this will lead to many more foreclosures for families who are already on the edge, and many more businesses picking up their machinery and moving out.
If Proposition 23 fails and the AB 32 snowball goes down the mountain, besides scuttling California’s economy, implementation of AB 32 could potentially wreck havoc across the nation. AB 32 will be a psychological victory for the enviromarxists and will empower the green fleecers to get the same or even more tyrannical laws and regulations from Congress, the EPA and other fleecer agencies in Washington. The federal-level fleecers are smarting from defeats so far in Congress but they are in ecstasy over the Supreme Court’s blessing of CO2 regulation and the EPA’s acting on it. EPA has already begun a program for gradual implementation of regulatory tyranny, choking off production of CO2 at the national level. And in the post-election lame duck session the Democratic leadership may bring cap and trade legislation to a vote. Only if the Republican minority hold including the Rhinos, ca the federal bill be stopped.
There may be other states that will like robots foolishly follow with AB 32-like legislation. In any case Washington will impose addition fleecer costs in terms of taxes, fees and subsidies and economy-wrecking regulations, further separating Joe and Jane from their wealth. And this burden on Joe and Jane will be imposed at the time of the sickest national economy since the 1930s. On top of that the Obama team is readying the greatest income tax increase in history in the lame duck session. In combination, these attacks on the national economy will likely sink Joes and Janes around the nation, while the fleecers will all be safe on some hilltop. Our nation’s economy has never endured the financial blows that are planned by Senator Reid, Senator Boxer, et al, and President Obama. These attacks will occur, unless they are stopped at the ballot box here in California on November 2nd, and in Congress by the Republican phalanx of 41.
But that is not all.
If AB 32 sails across the US and enables federal cap and trade law and more carbon controls, and Congressional tolerance of the EPA tyranny (i.e., inaction to stop the EPA), that will further empower the next layer of fleecers, the international cabal of thieves at the United Nations. The Obama gang made a big pitch for internationalization of the carbon control myth at Copenhagen in 2009; they lost in that round, but it is by no means a dead horse. The UN global warming cabal has a detailed schedule of meetings to implement a Kyoto II global warming treaty along with a regulatory environment that will amount to socialism on a global scale, based on the carbon myth. They want to whack the wealth of the Joes and Janes of the entire first world and transfer it to third world dictatorships as a “climate debt”. And Obama and Clinton continue to seek this international treaty even though it will put Americans in sackcloth. If such a treaty is approved by the Senate in will make American Joes and Janes subject to the will of UN thieves and dictatorships.
On the other hand, if Proposition 23 wins, it will set back the fleecers not only in California but nation-wide and world-wide. The international fleecers are counting on the Obama gang’s help in getting Kyoto II passed. But a yes on Proposition 23 will go a long way towards putting a sock on the Obama-Boxer program. Most important, Joe and Jane will retain the wealth that the fleecers want to steal from them.
The fleecers (here is a list) have mobilized massive funds from both in and out of the state to sink Proposition 23 with agiprop. At last count their funding beat the Pro-Proposition 23 faction by over 3.3 to1. This attack on Proposition 23 has nothing to do with cooling the planet. It is only about fleecing Joe and Jane California. If the fleecers and their enviro-socialist allies fail here in California , they know they will be set back for years in achieving their goals nationally and internationally, and that is why they are pouring in big money to defeat Proposition 23.
But if Joe and Jane California ,vote no on Proposition 23, they will unleash the AB 32 snowball which will propel Californians into a regulatory hell and huge increases in electric power costs and in gasoline and diesel fuel costs. These energy sources are the backbone of the state economy. If their costs go up, the cost of everything in Joe And Jane’s budget will go up. These are not cost increases of the order of 5%; they are more of the order of 50% or more. Only time will tell.
Once the AB 32 snowball gets rolling in California, other copycat states will set up their own anti-carbon regulations using the AB 32 as a model. At the federal level, setting free AB 32 in California wiil lend impetus to the fleecer demand for cap and trade. And it will further embolden the EPA to invoke even harsher and more costlier C02 emission controls.
AB 32 will have even further repercussions, in the halls of the UN, specifically the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC went to the Copenhagen Congress in 11/2009 with a portfolio draft plan for world governance, based on the carbon myth. Our president supported the global governance concept, but fortunately cooler heads prevailed. Nevertheless the IPCC continues to pursue its goal of a world governance based on the carbon dioxide myth. The implementation of AB 32 will give the IPCC cabal a boost up in propaganda value to carry their plan to fruition.
The main direct effect on Joe and Jane Califonria will be increase in daily cost of living and higher taxes. It can be visualized that increased costs and higher taxes will also result from the federal level, and at the UN level if President Obama has his way.
Ron Kilmartin is a consulting engineer in water and power resources in Pleasant Hill, CA.